Aircraft design has always catered to customer needs. For the global aviation industry, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) such as Boeing and Airbus have all turned to their end users — the airlines — for design inspiration for aircraft models. Airline input leads to incredible and unique aircraft designs with a wide range of capabilities. After the dawn of the jet age, airlines required speed as a key element of their business strategy, leading to designs like the Convair 990 and the Concorde.

However, with dramatic increases in operating costs, airlines have opted for increasingly efficient aircraft as a design priority for OEMs. While aircraft and engine technology has changed, a question for pilots and industry experts alike remains: What aircraft designs will be most popular in the future? Jekaterina Shalopanova, Chief Business Officer of Aerviva, provides insight into aircraft design preferences in today’s and tomorrow’s business environment.

Aircraft orders of 2023

“To understand what aircraft will be popular in 2040, we can examine order books today to determine preferences in the market,” Shalopanova said.
The A321neo outperformed other aircraft in the Airbus catalog, representing 56% of the OEM’s sales of both single-aisle and widebody passenger aircraft that year. Narrowbody aircraft accounted for 1,977 units in Airbus’ order report for 2023, compared to the 342-strong purchase of widebodies.

“The Airbus order book of 2023 demonstrates a preference for large, single-aisle aircraft, with the A321neo representing 66% of all narrowbody orders,” Shalopanova said.
The A321neo and the smaller A320neo generated commitments for 1,313 and 520 aircraft, respectively, with the A321neo earning commitments from 51 customers, four more than the A320neo. The most recent additions in the European aerospace conglomerate’s order book reflected a desire for the increased efficiency of 220-240 seat aircraft, while Airbus’ widebody A350 received 98 more orders than the A330neo.

“These counts reflect the increased range advantages of the A321neo’s potential revenue per seat mile as that design is coupled with lower operating costs than previous variants,” Shalopanova said.
The implied market preference among Airbus’ widebody aircraft is oriented toward the A350-900, which accounted for 52% of Airbus twin-aisle aircraft orders, outpacing the similarly sized 787-10 by representing 69% of all orders for commercial aircraft of that size.

Boeing’s reporting for 2023 indicated a customer preference for the 737 MAX, which represented 67% of Boeing Commercial Airplanes’ orderbook. The 987 orders for the 737 MAX family show an appetite for efficient narrowbody aircraft with the capability to carry approximately 150-190 passengers. The majority of Boeing customers’ widebody selections were awarded to the 787-9, which garnered 242 commitments compared to 65 for the 787-10 and 116 for the 777X family of aircraft.

Customer taste translates to 2040

“While Boeing’s commitment to not diminish crew availability and training in the design of the 737 MAX was aided by sizable increases in comparative efficiencies, the Airbus orders demonstrate clear preferences for specialization in available aircraft capacity options for economies of scope within the aviation industry,” Shalopanova said. “Airbus’ passenger aircraft customers of 2023 showed a tendency toward efficient, long-range single-aisle aircraft with airlines showing a preference for showing the right sized aircraft for every route.”

Currently, both Boeing and Airbus deliveries still lag behind pre-pandemic levels. In 2023, Airbus delivered 735 aircraft compared to 863 in 2019. Boeing, for its part, delivered 528 aircraft in 2023 compared to 806 in 2018, with the plane manufacturer experiencing a drop in deliveries in 2019 due to the 737 MAX groundings. Delivery timelines have also been increasingly protracted. For example, Japan Airlines’ recent order of the 787-9 announced at this year’s Farnborough International Airshow won’t see deliveries until 2028.

“With such extended timelines for aircraft delivery, one can conclude that the aircraft of 2040 will look much like those of today given customer preference for dependable aircraft that are precisely tailored to perform efficiently for an ever-increasing variety of narrowbody routes,” Shalopanova said. “Certain upsets, including sustainable aviation fuel and the economic cost of aviation stemming from stresses such as supply chain and workforce shortages, could have a larger influence on aircraft orders for the next decade.”

There needs to be many adoptions for the commercial use-case of aviation for electric aircraft. To gain traction, electric powerplants still need to be further researched and developed to deliver meaningful range capabilities. As for blended wing body designs, no passenger design currently proposed has generated orders, although NASA’s studies of the concept have garnered support from Boeing. The greatest and simultaneously most likely deviation from the norm is Boom’s Overture, which has commitments from United Airlines for luxury use, but the development of this single-aisle, supersonic type still faces significant challenges.

“The preference for today’s longer-range narrowbody aircraft means pilots should be prepared to operate more types of aircraft,” Shalopanova said. “Beyond 2040, the next steps for the industry will include pursuing increased efficiency correlating with higher selectivity for aircraft that airlines can feasibly operate under labour and regulatory constraints of the future.”

A380 operations in 2040: An unlikely comeback

The first decade of the millennium promised a resurgence in large passenger quad jets such as the A380 and 747-8, while the second decade saw the end of production for both of those types. Although large aircraft types appeared to be going out of favor before the COVID-19 pandemic, the A380 has made somewhat of a recovery in the industry, and airline executives speculating on options to extend the aircraft’s life after Airbus’ CEO of Commercial Aircraft Christian Scherer reiterated that restarting production is not ruled out.

“The A380 is a standout case in aviation due to its size,” Shalopanova said. “The double-decker aircraft can offer seating for 525 passengers at the cost of requiring upgrades to airport infrastructure to accommodate it.”

The twin-deck Airbus has a wingspan of 79.8 meters and is capable of a maximum take-off weight of nearly 560,000 kg. Operating a four-engine jet is expensive as the powerplants require more fuel and often more maintenance.

“Such a massive aircraft made financial sense to certain airlines because of economies of scale,” Shalopanova said. “The A380, like its Boeing counterpart, the 747-8, uses modern engine technology to increase fuel efficiency that translates into lower cost per seat-mile if the airline can sell enough tickets.”

On the topic of filling seats in aircraft, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimates that 2024 will be the first year since the pandemic when overall passenger demand surpasses pre-pandemic levels, estimated at 4.5% higher than in 2019. IATA recently reported that passenger demand across the globe in June 2024 was 9.1% higher year over year. This return in passenger demand coincides with increasing backlogs and delivery delays of other aircraft types currently in production.

Still, Qatar Airways’ former Chief Executive Akbar Al Baker told the press that the airline’s biggest mistake was adding the A380, only to be followed by his successor’s statements in favor of extending the aircraft’s lifespan. Lufthansa’s executives probably contextualized the A380’s revitalization more accurately, as the type was a favourite among its crews.

“Despite garnering a second wind of commercial success, the A380 will likely face more retirements by 2040, as the aircraft’s airframe structure will encounter cycle limits by that age,” Shalopanova said. “The continued tenacity of the A380 in a marketplace focused on smaller aircraft could point to a potential crown on the ground in the scope of new, large aircraft-type additions to order books in the 2040s.”

About Aerviva:
Aerviva is a Dubai-based international consultancy, specializing in aviation recruitment and document management.