Dubai, 11 November, 2025 The Dubai airshow kicks off next week, signalling the last public event at which large commercial orders are announced before the year draws close. As usual, my standard airshow caveat must reiterate that the timing is purely for airline and OEM PR, as orders take months, even years, of careful negotiation before signing. Much like Paris and Farnborough, the Dubai Air Show is a major event, with close to 150,000 industry attendees expected and a large mix of commercial, private and defence exhibits on display, with orders anticipated across the entire field. Historically, while not usually matching the European shows in scale, Dubai has still produced some significant order activity and provided early signals of key buying decisions from operators and lessors, not just from the Middle East but also Africa, Europe and the US. Indigo Partners’ 2021 and 2017 orders for 255 and 430 A320neos, respectively, underscored that point, with deliveries spread across Wizz, Frontier, Volaris, and JetSmart. However, the largest customers have often been from within the region and surrounding areas. The 2025 Landscape so far So far, 2025 has already seen a sizeable level of ordering activity, well above delivery levels, despite relatively benign oil pricing and a wounded supply chain. While it will be another week before Airbus and Boeing announce “official” ordering activity for October, IBA Fleets & Values has already tracked gross firm orders (for the year to date) reaching at least 745 for Airbus and 821 for Boeing. This is also without considering the roughly 650 LOIs, MoUs and options announced but not yet converted, several of which could firm up in Dubai later this month or soon after. Among those from the region are Avilease (25 A320neos, 12 A350Fs, and 10 737 MAX 8s from May and June), Gulf Air (18 787s from July), Riyadh Air (25 A350-1000s from June), and Turkish Airlines (150 MAXs and 25 787s from September). However, the main factors that will likely draw focus this year will be Boeing’s recent announcement of additional delays for the 777X and whether Emirates will continue to make further changes to its overall fleet plan. Anticipated activity and key storylines at the Dubai Airshow The 777X and Emirates’ Dilemma Regarding the 777X, the Middle East and surrounding area account for 65% of the firm backlog for the 777-9, 777-8 and 777-8F, with Emirates leading the pack with 205, followed by Qatar with 124. The remainder is split across Etihad, Ethiopian, Air India and Silk Way, before spreading out to other regions for the rest. With the delay pushing into 2027, Sir Tim Clark has vented his frustration, but aside from continuing with the interior refurb plan and potentially adding a few more to the list that they may have expected to convert, return to lessors or retire, what can Emirates do? They are certainly no strangers to change. They’ve already extended many of their leases on 777s and A380s, but with the price of 777 freighter feedstock reaching a new high, investors may decide to sell the aircraft at lease end rather than extend for a further period. There is nothing on offer above the 777-9, but there is still an ongoing battleground to cover the rest. In particular, Dubai 2025 is the right time to decide on the right mix for the A350 and 787 families, or whether the range/capacity mix for the 777-8 is not required. Emirates currently holds 170 777-9s, 35 777-8s, 15 787-8s, 15 787-10s and 52 A350-900s on order. There has been much talk about a large potential A350-1000 order to replace the ageing 777-300ERs, but there remain question marks coming from Emirates on the engine’s reliability. Similarly, shifting from 30 787-9 orders to an even split of the 787-8s and -10s appeared to open up a gap, too. Whilst a decision may not be made this year, I certainly feel that yet another reassessment could be on the cards that could see 777-8s fall out, A350-1000s go in, and a further adjustment of the 787 mix to pull in some -9s and perhaps more -10s. Regional widebody activity Elsewhere on the widebody front, additional A350 top-ups are possible from a number of potential customers, and potentially a greater number of 787 orders appearing if current-year trends continue. Nailing it down to who is likely other than Emirates is trickier, as many within the region already have long backlogs. Narrowbody activity On the narrowbody front, orders for the A321neo and MAX 8/10s are expected, although the largest MAX type remains in the certification process. Already within the region, Saudia, flydubai, Pegasus, flynas, Air Arabia, and SunExpress probably have enough to be getting on with, whilst Oman Air, Gulf Air, Royal Air Maroc, EgyptAir and Etihad are potentially shy of where they need to be to satisfy fleet growth and replacement requirements. For some, it will be about replacement with a larger variant, whilst others may explore longer-range options. As mentioned, Turkish Airlines could firm up the recent LOIs for 150 MAXs placed just six weeks ago. Despite other OEMs’ increased presence at the show, I’m not expecting many orders from others within the region, outside of private or military use. Conclusion In summary, a reasonable number of orders and commitments are expected, potentially exceeding 300. It will be a tougher show for selling 777s (except perhaps freighters, which are not due for a few years) but could see a major A350-1000 order from Emirates, some reshuffling of widebody portfolios, and steady narrowbody demand. The A350F also can’t be ignored, which is beginning to gain traction. IBA expects around 300 commercial aircraft orders and commitments from this year’s Dubai Air Show,including firm, MoU, LOI and options, but excluding conversions and adjustments to existing deals. ( News based on press release and published unedited.)
