As global air traffic demand exceeds pre-pandemic levels in 2024, airlines are turning their attention to fleet expansion, according to a new report from Alton Aviation Consultancy. Despite record profits, operators need to consider short-and long-term strategies to overcome production issues and secure additional capacity.
The global aviation advisory firm in its independent 2024-2034 Commercial Aircraft Fleet Forecast, offers detailed insight into current market conditions, alongside a 10-year forecast of air traffic demand and the active fleet. Alton’s projections indicate the fleet should increase from 31,000 aircraft in operation today to 41,100 by 2034, marking an annual growth rate of 2.8%.
In this exclusive interview, Joshua Ng, Director, Alton Aviation Consultancy, Singapore, speaks with Vishal Kashyap, Managing Editor, Aviation World about the current industry scenario, future demand and strategies to streamline the exponential growth pattern. Excerpts:
AW: Looking into the aircraft orders in this region, how do you evaluate the growth of MRO sector?
JN: The growth of MRO will follow in tandem with the growth of the current fleet, which we expect will increase from 31,200 aircraft today to 41,100 aircraft by 2034, growing at 2.8% annually. This growth reflects both regional expansion and recovery in air travel demand.
AW: How the supply chain issue is going to be resolved and what is the expected timeline?
JN: OEMs continue to face supply chain issues as they struggle to ramp up production in the post-COVID environment and restore capacity in their supply chain. In a recent survey at MRO APAC, MRO executives were largely of the view that some suppliers have recovered, but there are other suppliers who still have major issues. Geopolitical tensions, compounded with shortage of raw materials and key components imply that OEM issues with cross-border trade and logistics will further delay deliveries in the near-term. This in turn forces operators to use older aircrafts longer and requiring more MRO activities to maintain airworthiness.
Resolving the supply chain issues will require a combination of strategies, such as diversifying suppliers, investing in local manufacturing capabilities, and adopting data analytics capabilities to better manage inventory and forecast demand. While some mitigating efforts is expected to yield improvements within the next 12-18 months, full recovery may take longer as it depends on global stability and continued investment in supply chain resilience.
AW: Shortage of skilled manpower is another big challenge globally. How airlines are coping up with this massive issue?
JN: The post-pandemic labour environment presents structural challenges to companies and their recruitment and retention efforts. Workers increasingly prefer an environment with “work from home” possibilities, and are more open to “gig employment” as a stable source of income. To cope with labour constraints, airlines and MROs will need to make upskilling and talent retention their priority in order to do more with less. They will need to develop better training programs to upskill their workforce, redesign job processes to balance worker preferences against job activities, and invest in technologies that can raise labour productivity. Modern technologies such as drone inspections can augment labour capability while others such as using augmented realities to enable remote technician support will raise labour productivity. Such efforts to upskill the workforce and utilize of technologies will help airlines and MROs better cope operationally.
AW: What steps according to you are required to be implemented for the growth of MRO sector across the region?
JN: For the MRO sector to enjoy sustainable growth, further investment in technological innovation and digitalization will be key. Implementing data-driven maintenance practices, such as predictive maintenance and digital twin technology, can improve operational efficiency and reduce downtime. Additionally, creating regional partnerships and pooling resources for specialized skill development would better address both infrastructural and manpower shortages, whilst supporting ongoing innovation across the sector.
About Joshua Ng, Director, Alton Aviation Consultancy, Singapore:
Based in Alton’s Singapore office, Joshua Ng brings 15 years of experience in the aviation and aerospace industry. He co-leads the firm’s technology and mobility practice and supports the firm’s Asia Pacific aviation advisory engagements across the aviation value chain from airlines, to MROs, to industry investors.
Joshua combines his significant expertise in business strategy development, market demand forecasting, operating model development, and financial modeling to help clients with developing and implementing their go-to-market strategies and long-term business plans. He has also worked in the transaction advisory space, helping investors and strategic clients with mergers, acquisitions and divestments of enterprises, infrastructure and assets, as well as on topics including transaction management, valuation, post-merger integration, and carve-out.
